If you’d told anyone a decade ago that a 150-year-old insulin maker from Indiana would join the $1 trillion club alongside Apple and Microsoft, they’d have laughed.
Yet that’s exactly what Eli Lilly just did.
On the back of its breakthrough weight-loss and diabetes drugs Mounjaro (tirzepatide) and Zepbound, Lilly has become the first pharma company in history to hit a trillion-dollar market value. Investors are effectively betting not just on a product cycle, but on a long structural shift in how the world treats obesity and diabetes.
And India is right in the middle of this story.
In this post, let’s break the whole thing down in simple language:
- How Lilly reached the $1 trillion milestone
- How its GLP-1 drugs actually work
- The size of the U.S. and global market today – and where it’s headed
- What’s happening in India: current market size, key players, and market shares
- Which Indian pharma companies are building “India’s answer” to Ozempic/Mounjaro
- The way forward: what investors, doctors and policymakers should watch next
From Insulin Veteran to Trillion-Dollar Weight-Loss Giant
Eli Lilly has been around since 1876. For most of that time, it’s been known for diabetes drugs like Humulin and Trulicity, psychiatric drugs like Prozac and cancer therapies. Solid, but not exactly “trillion-dollar” territory.
The inflection point came with GLP-1 drugs – a class of medicines originally developed for Type 2 diabetes that turned out to be extraordinarily effective for weight loss.
- 2022: Lilly launches Mounjaro (tirzepatide) in the U.S. for Type 2 diabetes. Demand explodes.
- Late 2023: The same molecule, branded Zepbound, is approved in the U.S. specifically for obesity/weight management.
- 2023–2025: Sales of these drugs run into tens of billions of dollars, with supply struggling to keep up. The market starts to see them not as niche drugs, but as potential “statins for obesity” – long-term therapies used at population scale. Source
As prescriptions and sales surged, so did Lilly’s share price. In November 2025, the company finally crossed the $1 trillion market-cap mark, becoming the first ever healthcare company to do so – largely on the back of GLP-1 demand. Source
How Do These “Miracle” Weight-Loss Drugs Actually Work?
Let’s keep this non-technical and intuitive.
The hormones they copy
Our gut naturally releases hormones after we eat that:
- tell the brain “you’re full”
- slow how quickly food moves through the stomach
- help the pancreas release insulin and control blood sugar
One of these is GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1). Another is GIP (glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide).
What Mounjaro/Zepbound do
- Semaglutide (Novo Nordisk’s drug in Ozempic/Wegovy/Rybelsus) is a GLP-1 agonist – it mimics the GLP-1 hormone.
- Tirzepatide (Lilly’s molecule in Mounjaro/Zepbound) is a dual agonist – it mimics both GLP-1 and GIP.
In real-world terms, patients on these injections often:
- feel full sooner and stay full longer
- have fewer cravings and snack less
- see better blood-sugar control
- lose significant amounts of weight over months
Clinical trials have shown double-digit percentage weight loss for many patients when combined with diet and lifestyle changes – numbers that older drugs simply never achieved.
The Size of the Prize: U.S. & Global Market Outlook
What’s happening in the U.S. right now
The U.S. is ground zero for the GLP-1 boom:
- In 2023 alone, Americans spent about $71.7 billion on GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic, Wegovy and Mounjaro – up almost 500% from 2018. The Washington Post
- Usage is particularly high in states with obesity hotspots, where more than 15–20% of adults are now on GLP-1 meds in some areas.
Even though many insurers only partially reimburse these drugs – and some weight-loss use is cash-pay – demand continues to outrun supply.
Market forecasts: from billions to hundreds of billions
Different research houses have slightly different numbers, but they all agree on one thing: this is going to be huge.
- J.P. Morgan Research expects the global GLP-1 market to cross $100 billion by 2030, roughly split between diabetes and obesity usage.
- Other analysts now see GLP-1 sales reaching ~$130–140 billion by 2030, as new oral drugs and combination therapies come in.
- A separate estimate for the obesity-specific GLP-1 segment sees the market growing from about $8.2 billion in 2025 to over $65 billion by 2035.
In short, the world is moving from a $6–7 billion anti-obesity drug market in 2024 to something potentially 15–20x larger by the early 2030s.
Lilly and Novo Nordisk currently dominate this space, but the pie itself is expanding so fast that more big pharma players are racing to enter.
India Joins the GLP-1 Party
India has a perfect – or rather imperfect – setup for GLP-1 adoption:
- One of the highest absolute numbers of diabetics in the world
- Rapidly rising obesity, especially in urban middle- and upper-income groups
- A growing, health-conscious segment that is willing and able to pay ₹15,000–20,000 per month for effective therapy
What’s already in the Indian market?
Right now, India’s GLP-1 and obesity-drug landscape looks like this:
- Semaglutide (Novo Nordisk)
- Oral semaglutide (Rybelsus) was launched in India in 2022.
- Sales reportedly grew from about ₹26 crore to ₹412 crore, giving it around two-thirds of India’s GLP-1 market by mid-2025.
- Tirzepatide (Eli Lilly – Mounjaro)
- Launched in India for diabetes and weight loss in 2025.
- Early data suggests tirzepatide has moved quickly: some industry estimates show it at 8–15% share of the GLP-1/weight-loss market by mid-2025, but growing fast.
- Liraglutide (older GLP-1)
- Off patent globally since 2023 and in India as well, making it a target for local biosimilars and generics.
Size of the Indian market so far
While exact numbers vary by source, a few things are clear:
- GLP-1 receptor agonists are now one of the fastest-growing segments in India’s anti-obesity and diabetes drug markets.
- Rybelsus plus injectable GLP-1s together are already a multi-hundred-crore category, and that is before widespread launches of low-cost generics.
As patents expire and more Indian players enter, this has the potential to become a ₹10,000+ crore category over the next decade, depending on pricing, insurance coverage and regulatory support.
Which Indian Companies Are Playing This Game?
This is where it gets really interesting for Indian investors.
Right now, innovator brands (Novo Nordisk and Lilly) dominate the GLP-1 space. But the patent cliff – and India’s strength in complex generics and biosimilars – opens the door for domestic pharma.
1. Companies working on semaglutide / Wegovy / Ozempic opportunities
Multiple reports suggest that Indian pharma companies are preparing generic or biosimilar versions of semaglutide as patents start to expire in major markets from 2026 onward.
Names that consistently keep coming up include:
- Zydus Lifesciences – working on GLP-1 biosimilar programs.
- Biocon – strong biosimilars capability, reported to be developing its own version of semaglutide/Wegovy-type products.
- Sun Pharma – developing utreglutide, a proprietary GLP-1 analog, for weight loss and Type 2 diabetes.
- Cipla, Dr. Reddy’s, Lupin, Natco, Mankind, Aurobindo – variously reported to be working on generic semaglutide or GLP-1-related programs for global as well as Indian markets.
- Glenmark, Gland Pharma – emerging as serious contenders in peptide and injectable GLP-1 biosimilars.
2. Indian GLP-1 market shares today
Because this is a fast-moving segment, numbers change every quarter, but broad trends look like this:
- Semaglutide (Novo Nordisk): roughly two-thirds of India’s GLP-1/weight-loss market by mid-2025.
- Tirzepatide (Lilly – Mounjaro): low-double-digit share (around 8–15%) but growing rapidly after its 2025 launch.
- Others (liraglutide and older drugs): the remaining share, increasingly commoditised as generics spread.
For now, Indian companies don’t yet dominate volume or value in GLP-1s – but the groundwork is clearly being laid.
Are There Other Drugs Similar to Lilly’s GLP-1s?
Yes. Think of the field in three layers:
1. First wave – classic GLP-1 agonists
- Liraglutide – daily injection, older generation
- Semaglutide – weekly injection (Ozempic/Wegovy) and daily oral pill (Rybelsus)
These are already on the market globally and in India in innovator form; Indian generics/biosimilars are under development.
2. Second wave – dual and triple agonists
- Tirzepatide (Lilly) – dual GIP + GLP-1 agonist (Mounjaro/Zepbound)
- Retatrutide (Lilly, in trials) – a triple agonist (GIP/GLP-1/glucagon) showing even greater weight-loss potential in early data.
These are harder to copy and will likely remain premium for longer.
3. Third wave – orals and non-GLP-1 mechanisms
- Oral GLP-1 pills for obesity (Lilly and others) – designed to offer Wegovy-like benefits without injections.
- New mechanisms such as amylin analogues (e.g., AbbVie’s GUBamy) – aiming to complement or even compete with GLP-1s.
For Indian pharma, the real value creation may be less about copying today’s injectables and more about:
- building expertise in complex peptides and injectables
- moving up the value chain into co-development and global partnerships
- owning parts of the oral and combo-therapy future of obesity care
The Way Forward: What’s Next for Lilly, India and the GLP-1 Market?
Let’s wrap up with a forward-looking view.
1. For Eli Lilly
- The market is betting that Mounjaro/Zepbound are just Phase 1.
- If oral GLP-1 pills, triple agonists and cardiovascular/renal indications play out well, Lilly’s revenue base could look very different by 2030.
- The flip side: any safety scare, reimbursement pushback, or powerful competitor could hit sentiment sharply – which matters at a $1T valuation.
2. For India’s healthcare system
Three big questions will decide how far GLP-1s penetrate:
- Affordability:
- Current innovator prices (₹14,000–18,000 per month) are only viable for a small, affluent segment.
- Generics and biosimilars will be critical to making this a mass-market obesity solution, not just a “Bollywood + tech-bro” drug.
- Access & ethics:
- How do we ensure diabetics and those with serious obesity-related health risks get priority, rather than purely cosmetic use?
- How will regulators crack down on off-label, unmonitored, online usage?
- Prevention vs. pills:
- GLP-1 drugs work, but they’re not magic wands. India still needs basic work on diet, urban design, physical activity and early screening if we don’t want to spend a fortune treating avoidable disease.
3. For Indian pharma & investors
Over the next 5–10 years, expect:
- A race to launch semaglutide and liraglutide generics for both India and export markets
- More in-licensing and co-development deals as big pharma looks for capacity and cost-efficient partners
- A gradual shift from simple generics to high-value injectables, peptides and biologics, where Indian firms can command much better margins
For stock-pickers, the winners are likely to be companies that combine:
- strong R&D or biosimilar capabilities
- global-quality manufacturing
- and the balance sheet to survive price wars in a crowded market
So, What Can We Expect Next?
In one line:
The GLP-1 revolution is still in its early innings – and India is about to move from spectator to active player.
Eli Lilly’s trillion-dollar valuation is a symbol of where the world is headed:
away from simply managing complications of obesity and diabetes, and towards attacking the root cause – excess weight and metabolic dysfunction – at scale.
For patients, that could mean longer, healthier lives.
For India’s pharma companies, it’s a once-in-a-generation opportunity.
And for investors, it’s a space you probably can’t afford to ignore over the coming decade.